Day 13 Update

Handicapping the field with 4 days left

We have 15 players still sniffing around in the competition. Here is a brief outlook of the chances:

1. Halfpoint: leading. All South Korea all the time. Kim Yu-Na needs to crush the figure skating (while wearing blue) tonight and a few falls from the Japanese would be nice too.  3 short track events Friday will be big to cut the field down to just halfpoint, bruno, and papa hurt 2 bees. Finland winning men’s hockey gold would be gravy. But first things first: blue lycra tonight, Yu-Na.

2. Bruno: 10 points back, gold guarantee remaining. Canada women’s curling gold is the obvious priority, then you can repeat all the goals of halfpoint, with the exception of Kim Yu-Na wearing red tonight.

3. Flippy Flyer: 15 back. Actually in a tough spot, as there is little left for China and Australia. FF got full points from women’s aerials last night, and the short track relay DQ of Korea was a nice touch. However, the flyer is running on fumes and will soon be descending to the tarmac.

4. Papa hurt 2 bees: 18 back with gold guarantee remaining. The bee killer is still stalking. Japan and Slovakia. A win tonight in women’s figure skating would be a huge 10 point lift that no one above him has. So even though he picked South Korea, he should be rooting for Kim Yu-Na to skate herself into the wall tonight. After that, a USA-Slovakia men’s hockey final would be quite helpful thank you very much.

5. Tiber: 23 back. Things are not looking good for Tiber. Like Flippy Flyer, the China gravy train is over and there is no more gold guarantee to help. His best hope is for Japanese figure skating gold and Slovakia hockey gold, which would give him a good shot at 2^nd place.

6. Burg de Brown, Lisa McSnowqueen, The Dan in Quebec, Ukari Figgs: 25 back. This foursome have 1 thing in common: Sweden. There are still 3 cross country, 1 biathlon, and 3 alpine events remaining for the blue and yellow to do damage. Oh, and don’t forget curling. These guys aren’t out of it yet – especially Dan and Ukari, who have gold guarantee in play.

6. Dan in New York #1: 25 back. Even if we believed in miracles, that won’t be enough for Dan. He has no unique route to get in the top 2 as there are 2 Chinas, 3 Czechs, and 3 Polands in front of him.

11. Full Monte #1: 26 back with gold guarantee remaining. 26 points is a lot, to be sure. But the gg in curling would make that 16. Then Switzerland is a threat for gold in 5 remaining events – including the 4 man bobsled which gives double points. That would be 30 more theoretically. This race isn’t finished yet.

11. Poolmaster: 26 back. I’m out of it. I don’t want to talk about Mengtao and her face-first landing style in the final jump of aerials last night. I mean really – the strategy on her second jump had to be “land right side up, and you win gold.” This isn’t rocket science, come on! Like I said, I don’t want to talk about it.

13. Bijou: 27 back. Similar to Dan from New York: just too many entries with similar countries in front. Out of the running.

13. Chinda: 27 back. See Full Monte above, subtract 1 point. Oh, and do your best not to think about the Belarus dude who went the wrong way in cross country skiing.

13. Dr. Norway. 27 back. If somehow Sweden and Norway can join forces to win a bunch of everything, he’s got a shot. Just a slim one though. (Slovakia hockey gold would make it interesting!)